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High-Stakes Decision Making Framework

A fast, disciplined way to turn big, risky choices into advantaged bets. It starts by nailing the wicked problem and a vibrant future state, then isolates the few must-be-true hypotheses that drive value and risk. We classify the choice with the Door Test (reversible vs. irreversible), design cheap experiments to learn quickly, and mine hidden jewels—assets that create option value even if we pivot. Canaries and tripwires make risk visible early; meeting mastery keeps decisions crisp; and we hedge the downside, bank the upside with staged commitments and exit ramps. Use regret minimization only as a rare tie-breaker when data and tests can’t decide. The result: faster clarity, bounded downside, and a higher chance of asymmetric wins.

Download the High-Stakes Decisions Framework
High-Stakes Decision Making Framework

The Big Bets System™ High-Stakes Decision Making Framework

  1. Define the Wicked Problem & Customer Pain

  2. Define the Vibrant Future State

  3. Isolate High-Value, High-Risk Hypotheses & Options

  4. The Door Test: Reversible vs. Irreversible

  5. Design an Experimentation Path

  6. Find the Hidden Jewels

  7. The Canary in the Coal Mine

  8. High-Stakes Decision Meeting Mastery

  9. Hedge the Downside, Bank the Upside

  10. Minimize Use of the Regret Minimization Framework

What you get out of it

  • Speed with rigor: short cycles to clarity, no endless decks.

  • Bounded downside: tripwires, exit ramps, and staged commitments.

  • Asymmetric upside: more swings at high-potential bets; one win can pay for many misses.

  • Auditability: facts vs. assumptions vs. unknowns are explicit, with owners and tests.

Use it anytime the decision is consequential, contested, or ambiguous—and especially when you need to move fast and be right enough to commit.

Download the High-Stakes Decisions Framework

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